A decent chance. They appear in cycles. http://www.fmi.fi/faq/index_5.html http://www.softservenews.com/Aurora.htm http://www.pfrr.alaska.edu/aurora/If you have never seen them, I hope you can witness them firsthand. It is amazing.
To get an idea of the zone of activity go tohttp://www.gedds.alaska.edu/AuroraForeca��and select the North America or North Polar view.If the auroral activity is exceptionally high, it might be visible that far south. On most nights it won t be.
No, not really. Door County has been built up so much that the city lights would cancel them out that far south. The furthest south I have seen them is in the U.P. of Michigan near Lake Superior.